👀 Looking ahead

Good morning!  🎅 This is our last newsletter before the holidays and we just wanted to say happy holidays to you and your family. We have big events, award announcements and some more surprises to reveal in the New Year—all of it with the purpose of elevating the industrial sector. See you in 2026!

⏰ Today’s read: 5 minutes

MARKETS

Economy: Economists are split on the Bank of Canada’s next move, but most expect interest rates to remain on hold through 2026 amid slow growth and trade uncertainty. One view argues rate hikes are unlikely because Canada’s weak productivity and soft economy favour a weaker dollar to attract foreign investment, suggesting further monetary stimulus may be needed. In contrast, Scotiabank and National Bank foresee a possible 50-basis-point hike late in 2026 if inflation pressures persist, citing wage growth, weak productivity and a depreciating dollar.

NEED TO KNOW

The week's headlines

⚒️ Incomplete: New apprenticeship registrations in Canada reached a record 101,541 in 2024, up nearly 6% year over year, driven largely by increased enrolment in trades—particularly in Alberta, B.C. and Ontario. However, despite the surge in interest, only 46,971 certificates were issued, leaving the completion rate at 19.%, still below pre-pandemic levels, while nearly half of apprentices remain registered but uncertified.

⚛️ Nuclear family: Ontario and New York have signed an agreement to collaborate on the development of nuclear power, with Ontario Power Generation and the New York Power Authority formalizing the partnership through a memorandum of understanding. The agreement includes sharing expertise in nuclear technology, project development, and operations, as well as exploring opportunities for cross-border electricity trade and joint workforce initiatives.

 🤝 Shortcut: Ontario and Ottawa have signed an agreement to streamline environmental assessments for major projects, including the long-planned all-season road to the mineral-rich Ring of Fire region. Under the deal, the federal government will defer to Ontario’s assessment process, aiming for “one project, one assessment,” with the Impact Assessment Agency of Canada completing its review by June 2026.

💦 Washed out: B.C. officials say Highway 3, washed out by heavy rains last week between Princeton and Hope, could reopen sooner than expected—potentially between Boxing Day and New Year’s Day. Contractors are working around the clock, and engineers determined less reconstruction is needed than initially thought, with utilities remaining in place. A temporary detour with a 30 km/h speed limit is in use, and access may be limited to passenger vehicles until permanent repairs are completed.

THE BIG STORY

Looking ahead to a lukewarm 2026

2026 is shaping up to be a pivotal year for Canada’s construction sector. The fundamentals are shifting — and the industry is bracing for new pressures and new playbooks.

No quick deal on tariffs: Remember when our closest trade ally declared economic war on us? Prime Minister Mark Carney says there’s no near-term deal expected to lift U.S. tariffs on Canadian steel, aluminum, and autos. Talks collapsed in late 2025 and are now expected to roll into a broader renegotiation of the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA), likely stretching into 2026 or beyond.

Economic outlook: Canada’s economy is expected to grow modestly in 2026, with most forecasts landing around 1 to 1.4% GDP growth, down from earlier projections. Inflation is projected to hover near the Bank of Canada’s 2% target, easing pressure from previous spikes but still leaving borrowing costs elevated for developers. The overall outlook points to a slow-growth environment—not a recession, but not a boom.

No labour relief: New forecasts predict that skilled trades job vacancies will begin to worsen. Experts expect gaps to grow by 13% per year between 2026 and 2045. The shortfall could add nearly $8 billion annually to housing and renovation costs by mid-century. Climate disaster recovery, an aging workforce, and aggressive housing targets are compounding the problem.

Where the growth is: Mid-market rental, light industrial, and infrastructure retrofits are expected to drive the bulk of activity. While luxury condo launches are slowing, shovel-ready projects tied to federal housing or green infrastructure funding are moving forward. According to Altus Group, rising interest rates, high land costs, and demographic shifts are also pushing developers toward denser formats, suburban intensification, and modular methods. 

Bottom line: 2026 likely won’t be an easy year — but it may be a clarifying one. Builders who can adapt to labour constraints, embrace repeatable design, and manage climate and cost risk will be best positioned to lead. Policy is shifting, demand is evolving, and execution is everything.

PROJECT SPOTLIGHT

Building community

The Tamil Community Centre in Scarborough, Ontario, designed by gh3* and Lemay, translates Tamil cultural identity into a contemporary, civic form. The design draws on Tamil stone craftsmanship to create grounded, monolithic masses with pleated façades, deep overhangs, and fissure-like openings that balance weight and lightness, while avoiding religious symbolism or cultural appropriation. The $45M project is anticipated for completion in 2027.

PROJECT UPDATES

Construction wraps up on Oshawa’s new Downtown Urban Square

Fraser Highway portion reopens as SkyTrain work progresses

Berens River Bridge completion projected for 2028

Baseline Rd. development well underway in Ottawa

$17M contract awarded for St. John’s affordable housing project

Feds finance projects to rebuild Lytton facilities

WHAT WE’RE TALKING ABOUT

👷🏻‍♀️ READ: The last ‘People Moves’ of 2025

🏗️ VIDEO: Why a mile-high skyscraper is (almost) impossible

🤝 READ: Should Toronto ditch its land transfer tax?

🚃 PHOTOS: Why Vancouver is copying Vienna train stations

🦺 READ: B.C. construction firm owner fined in landmark case

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Here’s to a great rest of the week!

Disclaimer: SiteNews is an independently-operated news website. Views expressed are that of the editorial team and are based on publicly available information unless otherwise noted through sponsored content.