📉 The slowdown

Good morning! 🪚 Ever wonder how long your projects will last? Archeologists recently found the oldest example of carpentry in human history. The timber structure, uncovered at Kalambo Falls, Zambia, dates back at least 476,000 years, predating the emergence of Homo sapiens some 200,000 years ago.

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In this newsletter:

🔮Canada’s economic future

🪵 A prototype of mass timber’s future

💰 Provinces react to GST cut

MARKETS

*Stock data as of last market close; currency, oil and crypto data as of 8:00PM ET September 25thth, 2023.

Economy:  Canadian productivity is remaining stubborning low. The Canadian central bank anticipated productivity — defined as the output per hour worked — to increase as the economy recovered from the COVID-19 pandemic. However, it has declined in eleven of the last 12 quarters. Experts say this makes it harder for the Bank of Canada to combat inflation.

THE BIG STORY

Reports: The recession has finally hit

Canada’s long-expected recession may finally be upon us. A recent report by Oxford Economics argues that high debt and skyrocketing home prices are leading the country into a recession by the end of 2023.

Key takeaways:

• Oxford predicts total GDP growth of just 1% in 2023 before contracting by 0.2% in 2024. However, it then expects growth of 3% in 2025 and 3.3% in 2026.

• This is expected to cause an additional 10% decline in average house prices by early next year.

• Housing completions are forecast to fall by 21% in 2024.

• Calgary is likely to be Canada's only major urban centre that won’t experience a correction in its Housing Price Index.

Other data points:

• The Royal Bank of Canada stated that economic growth already looks dramatically softer in the context of a surging population. Canadian GDP has now declined for four straight quarters on a per-person basis.

• Mortgage Professionals Canada agreed, saying resilient consumer spending and a delayed US recession indicate the downturn will now begin in Q3 2023 as highly indebted households pull back consumption.

Putting it in context: We aren’t alone. The global economy is also slowing down. Royal Bank of Canada’s economists say GDP growth in Europe was slow over the first half of the year and unemployment in the UK is rising. The manufacturing outlook globally is dimming with data pointing to a pullback in activity. China is also looking poor, even controlling for a long-expected acceleration in demographic headwinds tied to a rapidly aging population.

NEED TO KNOW

The week's headlines

⚒️ Apprenticeships are surging in B.C., new data shows. SkilledTradesBC reported participation in the skilled trades increased by 8% overall in B.C. The biggest gains for underrepresented groups were women and Indigenous people, which increased 37% and 22%, respectively.

🏠Ontario Premier Doug Ford says he is halting efforts to develop housing in the province’s protected Greenbelt area. Ford called the previous development deal a mistake and said he broke his promise to voters that he would leave the region alone.

🏗️ B.C. is looking at creating its own program to build housing for middle-income residents, says Housing Minister Ravi Kahlon. So far, the province has mostly focused its efforts on developing housing for low-income earners. It’s the latest in a series of official announcements addressing the province’s housing crisis.

⚖️ Prosecutors have dropped six counts of criminal negligence against a construction company for a crash north of Toronto that killed six young people. The victims crashed into the deep pit of a construction site around 6 a.m. last fall.

PROJECT SPOTLIGHT

Mass timber prototype

A net-zero prototype residential tower aims to push the boundaries of wants possible with mass timber and sustainability. Prototype (M5) is a tall wood net zero, lifecycle carbon, affordable rental tower proposed for Vancouver. Henriquez Partners Architects says the name derives from its intention to be a replicable, open-source prototype and hybrid mass timber case study. The project team says the tower will have nearly the same net environmental impact as if it was never built.

PROJECT UPDATES

Broccolini recommended to build $200M Ottawa police facility

29-Storey Tower Proposed for Yonge Street

Housing Accelerator Fund request approved for Calgary

Leak source claims wastewater project cost is skyrocketing

Canada invests $107M to build Vancouver rental homes

WHAT WE’RE TALKING ABOUT

LIST: ✂️ Provincial response to the construction GST cut

READ: 👻 $100B Malaysian ghost town struggles to sell units

VIDEO: ⛏️ Toronto crews break ground to free trapped tunnelling machine 

PHOTOS: 🎉 Goodbye party thrown for Scarborough SRT

READ: 🐸 B.C. researcher tracks frogs relocated for construction

HOT JOBS

🔥 Check out the best roles up for grabs in construction right now:

• Junior Project Coordinator – North Vancouver, B.C. – Maven Consulting

• Development Manager – Kelowna, B.C. – High Street Consulting

• Chief of Staff – Sudbury, Ont. – Technica Mining

• Director of Culture – Vancouver, B.C. – Michels Canada

• Project Manager – Vancouver, B.C. – ERM Group

• Chief Operating Officer – Vancouver, B.C. – TransLink

• VP, Project management Office – Montreal, Que. – BBC Consultants

• Executive VP, Corporate Planning – Regina, Sask. – SaskEnergy

• Project Director, Civil & Infrastructure – Vancouver, B.C. – Pomerleau

• Construction Integration Director – Bowmanville, Ont. – Aecon Group

Check out all roles at SiteNews Jobs or put your job post in front of tens of thousands of construction professionals here.

Struggling to fill a role? send us an email at [email protected] to connect with one of our specialized recruitment experts.

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Here’s to a great rest of the week!